Smart Money Shows Its Hand Ahead of $15 Billion March Options Expiry

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Bitcoin
BTCUSD
and Ethereum
ETHUSD
face the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026, with $15.15 billion in combined notional value settling on Deribit Friday at 08:00 UTC.

The event will wipe out nearly 40% of total options open interest across both assets. Both trade well below their respective max pain levels, setting the stage for volatile price action before and after settlement.

Q1’s Biggest Derivatives Reset

BTC options account for $13.03 billion of the total exposure, with 189,792 contracts in open interest. ETH adds another $2.12 billion across 1,029,679 contracts.

The put-to-call ratio for both assets is 0.57, indicating a call-heavy positioning despite a broadly bearish market tone.

Bitcoin’s max pain sits at $74,000, while ETH’s max pain sits at $2,250. With BTC trading near $68,685 and ETH around $2,057, both assets remain significantly below these thresholds.

That gap could act as a gravitational pull, drawing prices upward before settlement as market makers adjust hedges.

Analysts at Greeks.live noted that this marks the largest options expiry of Q1, with nearly 40% of all options set to expire.

“The major options expiration date for Q1 is approaching, and will mark the largest options expiration of the first quarter of this year, with nearly 40% of options set to expire,” they wrote.

Institutional Positioning Tells a Different Story

While short-term sentiment leans bearish, block trade data tells a different story. According to Greeks.live, Deribit block trade data reveals that institutional players are aggressively rolling positions.

Many have closed expiring contracts and shifted heavily into out-of-the-money (OTM) call options for June and September.

This forward positioning suggests that large players view the current price weakness as temporary. Rather than defending current levels, they are betting on a post-expiry recovery in the months ahead.

Separately, Deribit analysts observed that ETH has more open call contracts than open put contracts.

However, put volume has outpaced call volume over the past 24 hours, reflecting growing hedging activity heading into settlement.

IV Crush and the Post-Expiry Playbook

Greeks.live analysts warned that an implied volatility (IV) crush is imminent. Front-end IV remains firm as expiry approaches, but once Friday’s settlement concludes, a sharp drop in volatility carries a high probability.

Short-term option buyers currently face severe theta decay, while sellers hold a clear advantage.

Bullish trading volume in commodities reached nearly $850 million on March 25, with rollovers accounting for the majority.

According to analysts at Greeks.live, capitalizing on the last-minute sell-off ahead of settlement remains a high-probability strategy.

The real move may come after the dust settles at 08:00 UTC today. Once $15.15 billion in open interest vanishes, the max pain gravity disappears with it.

If history is any guide, the 3 to 7 days following major quarterly expiries produce the most tradeable price action.

Whether BTC and ETH have been suppressed heading into Friday or running hot into settlement will likely determine the direction of the next leg.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/beincrypto:d00a89d00094b:0-smart-money-shows-its-hand-ahead-of-15-billion-march-options-expiry/