Analysts Are Calling ‘Jane Street 10 AM Bitcoin Dump’ Theory ‘Fake News’

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Key points:
Several analysts said Bitcoin price data does not show a repeated 10 AM sell-off pattern as rumors suggested.
The claim gained attention after a lawsuit against Jane Street tied to Terra trades became public in New York.
Market data showed Bitcoin trading near $64,266, with retail sentiment staying neutral.
Multiple crypto analysts are disputing claims that Jane Street Capital was manipulating Bitcoin (BTC) by dumping prices at 10 AM daily.

This theory has been gaining popularity over the week. Bitcoin analyst Sunny Decree wrote on Friday that the 10 AM dump narrative was “FAKE NEWS” and said that chart overlays do not show a consistent daily pattern of sell-offs at that time. He added that if traders review the intraday price data, then they can “debunk this theory in approximately 30 seconds.”

Adding to this sentiment, economist Alex Krüger addressed how institutional trading works, explaining that firms often buy spot Bitcoin while taking opposite positions in futures contracts, which keeps their overall market exposure balanced rather than pushing prices down.

Further, K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde shared an article in which he examined minute-by-minute Bitcoin price data and said it does not show a consistent daily price drop at 10 AM, as the theory claims.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $64,266.18, down by 4.9% in the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around Bitcoin remained in ‘neutral’ territory with chatter at ‘low’ levels over the past day.

The Claim

Speculation about the so-called “10 AM dump” continued to rise after the lawsuit filed in New York last Saturday was made public on Monday. The filing relates to alleged insider trading tied to 2022 Terra ecosystem transactions and does not mention current Bitcoin price suppression.

Adding to this sentiment, the prominent cryptocurrency analyst and influencer Justin Bechler posted "The 10 am Drop: How Jane Street Broke Bitcoin's Price" on Wednesday. The theory has picked up momentum since. According to Bechler, Jane Street was pushing Bitcoin lower through frequent morning sell-offs using ETF-related trades, maintaining the price below $150,000.

What Is The Jane Street Dump?

The term “Jane Street dump” refers to the claim that the firm regularly sold Bitcoin around 10 AM Eastern Time to push the price lower, especially when Bitcoin was trading below $150,000.

A crypto market watcher named Bull Theory shared a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) candlestick price chart, saying, "Since Jane Street was sued two days ago, the 10 AM manipulation has stopped."

In a similar vein, co-founders of Glassnode, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, added that the "Jane Street Lawsuit gets made public, and miraculously the 10 am $BTC slam disappears."

The 10 AM Reference

The 10 AM reference is about 10:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time, which is shortly after the U.S. stock market opens at 9:30 a.m. This is usually a busy time in financial markets because more traders are active and volumes increase.

Supporters of the theory said Bitcoin often dropped around this time. While CryptoQuant's head of research negates the 10 AM theory, saying it is what any other delta-neutral fund does. He added that this type of strategy is common in financial markets and is not unique to one firm. He said that calling this normal hedging activity a coordinated price dump is misleading.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:d8c47bbeb094b:0/