Bitcoin Falls Back Below $70K on Middle East Fears, Weak Jobs Data — Market Talk

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0949 ET - Bitcoin extends its losses, falling back below $70,000, on mounting concerns about an oil supply disruption stemming from the Middle East conflict and following weak U.S. jobs data. The WSJ reports that Kuwait has started cutting production at some oil fields after running out of room to store its bottled-up crude. It comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed by the Middle East conflict. Concerns about an energy price shock are weighing on risk sentiment including cryptocurrencies. Further dampening sentiment is Friday's much worse-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. Bitcoin falls 3.4% to an intraday low of $68,460, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0947 ET - The unemployment rate for those 20 to 24 years ticked up again after falling in January, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was 7.4% in February — up from 7.0% in January. In November 2025, that age category had an unemployment rate of 8.3%. Though an improvement from last year, this outpaces the national unemployment rate by 3 percentage points. This age category is typically includes recent college graduates who are struggling to land entry-level roles. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com; @jessica_coacci)

0930 ET - The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons decreased by 477,000 to 4.4 million in February, a potential bright spot in a widely disappointing report. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment, but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com; @jessica.coacci)

0916 ET - U.K. 10-year government bond yields climb to a 20-week high as rising oil prices raise the risk of high inflation in the U.K. Markets expect fewer interest-rate cuts from the Bank of England due to elevated inflation risk, Barclays economists say in a note. "The emerging energy price shock risks reawakening concerns within the (BOE monetary policy committee] that second​-​round effects could keep inflation sticky." Money markets price a 14% chance of the BOE cutting interest rates in March, down from 83% priced in prior to the start of the Middle East conflict, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields climb 15 basis points to 4.698%, the highest level since Oct. 13, 2025, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0909 ET - A negative payrolls number in February is unlikely to change the prospect for Fed cuts this year, Carson Group's Sonu Varghese writes. The report prints a negative 92,000, versus WSJ consensus of a positive 50,000, with unemployment ticking higher to 4.4% from 4.3%. The report is "a reminder that labor market risks haven't disappeared," Varghese says. On the other hand, "inflation is already elevated even before the upcoming energy price shock and AI-related bottlenecks." Varghese expects that combination to "stay the Fed's hand when it comes to interest rate cuts - it's unlikely we see cuts anytime soon." Markets are mostly pricing only one cut this year. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0903 ET - U.S. stock futures extend losses following a weak February payrolls reading. Total nonfarm employment fell by 92,000 last month versus the 50,000 gain forecast in the WSJ consensus. The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 4.4%. The government says employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity, while the information and federal government sectors continued to lose jobs. The decline in February payrolls may complicate current thinking on what the Federal Reserve may decide to do on interest rates.S&P futures are down 65 points. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)

0851 ET - The dollar falls after the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed an unexpected decline in employment in February, supporting the case for further interest-rate cuts. Payrolls fell 92,000 in February, compared to the 50,000 increase forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. January and December payrolls prints were revised lower. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January. Average hourly earnings growth, however, picked up to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.7% previously. The DXY dollar index falls to 99.063 after the data from 99.308 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Treasury yields fall as the U.S. loses 92,000 jobs in February. The negative payrolls print follows January's positive surprise of 126,000, after revision. WSJ consensus was a positive 50,000 for February. Unemployment ticks up to 4.4% from 4.3%, while forecasters expected it to be unchanged. Retail sales contract less than expected, at 0.2%. Treasury yields have been climbing on inflation fears since hostilities began in the Mideast and were rising again before falling sharply on the data. The 10-year falls to 4.128% from 4.145% yesterday. The two-year is at 3.561%, down from 3.599%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0836 ET - Euro covered bonds issuers are likely to pay a higher cost on new bonds to attract investors, Barclays' Cristina Costa says in a note. High uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict has caused investors to be more cautious and led to a temporary shutdown of the euro covered bonds primary market, Costa says. "We expect new issue premia to rise slightly when the market reopens, although this may be short-lived." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0815 ET - Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says in a TV interview that the conflict in the Middle East isn't likely to boost prices across the economy in a way that will demand the Fed's response. "For us, thinking about the policy going forward, this is unlikely to cause sustained inflation," Waller tells Bloomberg Television. He says that higher energy prices won't necessarily bleed over to a stronger underlying inflation trend. "That's one reason we don't look at energy prices when we look at core," Waller says. "And core is a better predictor of future inflation." (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

0812 ET - Sterling's outperformance versus the euro is puzzling, Monex Europe's Nick Rees says. "The U.K. is similarly exposed to an energy price shock, inflation expectations are arguably less well anchored than those in the eurozone, and the political headwinds facing Prime Minster [Keir Starmer] have intensified on the back of this conflict." This argues for a weaker sterling versus the euro, he says. Monetary policy expectations have shifted in sterling's favor with markets now seeing little chance of a Bank of England rate cut this year. However, there's plenty of scope for markets to be caught off guard by a rate cut on March 19, he says. The euro falls to a four-week low of 0.8660 pounds, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0801 ET - Sterling is unlikely to rise much further against the euro as higher energy prices could negatively impact U.K. government bonds, or gilts, ING's Chris Turner says. Short-term sterling rates are rising as the increase in energy prices prompts markets to scale back interest-rate cut expectations for the Bank of England. However, this could cause problems for the gilt market where investors are overweight, Turner says. While sterling is enjoying short-term benefits of higher rates, there's a risk of bond market turmoil stemming from an energy price shock, he says. In this case, "gilts could drag sterling lower again over coming weeks." The euro falls 0.2% to a four-week low of 0.8666 pounds, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260306004826:0/